The combination of an exclusive evaluation agreement and directed share issue to Novo Nordisk, global leader in diabetes treatment, provides both a significant validation of PharmaShell and a 63 MSEK capital injection that secures runway into 2024, thereby eliminating the risk of a previously impending rights issue. Based on rough assumptions of 20% probability for a licensing deal with Novo Nordisk, an application of PharmaShell on 10% of Novo’s portfolio long-term and a 5% royalty rate, this motivates a new fair value of 6.3-7.9 (6.6-8.1) SEK per share, after adjusting for 17% dilution and a mutual exclusivity between a Novo Nordisk license and NEX-22. After a +80% surge in the share price after the news, this leaves a significant revaluation potential, where we find support from a broad pipeline of activities moving into 2023.

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Emergers