Awardit: Another quarter of stable growth – ABG


• Q2 results due on 15 August
• Expected to maintain stable organic growth of 5%
• We also forecast slight pressure on profitability

Expect somewhat lower org. growth in Q2e
We predict organic growth of 5% (for sales of SEK 256m), which is soli but a bit lower than 12% in the previous quarter. One reason for this is that the Saint Gobain contract win is now fully integrated in the org. numbers. In addition, we expect continued pressure on MBXP’s physical sales due to lower retail footfall, hurting its gift card sales. Meanwhile, we expect the core loyalty business to perform well driven by large clients continuing to expand their programmes. We also predict that the German business will remain stable with Prämie Direkt a bit below last year’s level but Connex contributing with positive growth. Connex will be fully integrated this quarter, which has a positive effect on gross margin but adds high opex. On profitability, we expect lower sales in MBXP and high growth in lower-margin loyalty programmes such as Saint Gobain to push the EBITA margin down to 11% (14%) for Q2e EBITA of SEK 28m.—another-quarter-of-stable-growth/

ABGSC Commissioned Research