Intervacc: Stepping towards the future – ABG

Strangvac launched, EU roll-out through ‘22
Advancements in new vaccine candidates
Q1 EBIT of SEK-11m, SEK 94m in cash

Launch in the books, potential sales of SEK 1.8bn
The first Strangvac batch was released on 23 March and the first order placed thereafter, hence there was no material sales contribution in Q1. We find the reception in Sweden promising and welcome that Several KOLs are currently promoting Strangvac independently. In Europe, Dechra and Intervacc will shortly launch Strangvac, and we expect it to be rolled out market by market in the foreseeable future. Long-term, Intervacc is targeting to vaccinate 50% of horses (equine influenza 40-70%) in its core markets (EU & US), which indicates an annual sales potential of SEK 1.8bn, assuming two does per year at SEK 100 each (~EUR 10). While the timing for it to reach maturity is uncertain, we believe it is less critical for the long-term uptake, considering that Strangvac is not replacing an existing therapy, nor is it facing significant competition from emerging products.

More than a one-trick pony
Intervacc recently announced the advancement in two other vaccines candidates, which we believe shows the value of its technology platform, in addition to the accretion these vaccines could have to long-term sales. A proof-of-concept study showed that a prototype vaccine provided piglets significant protection against Streptococcus suis. It also demonstrating safety in dairy cows, for a vaccine against Staphylococcus aureus, which is the most common cause of the disease mastitis (2.6m EU cases/y). Although it is early to assess the value of these, we note that there is significant potential, considering that 400m piglets are slaughtered annually, and the milk cow population is >30m.

Q1’22 financials
Sales in Q1 were SEK 1.2m, (+5% y-o-y), which we mainly attribute to Nordvac. EBIT decreased to SEK -11m (SEK -6.5m), on higher other expenses and D&A. The cash position was SEK 94m.

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https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/intervacc/Equity-research/2022/5/intervacc—stepping-towards-the-future/

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