Humble Group: Strong growth with some margin compression – ABG


– We cut ’23e-’25e EBITA by 11-3%
– Equity issue eases leverage
– ’24e FCF yield of 5.1%

What to expect in Q2’23
For Q2’23 we expect sales of SEK 1,627m, implying 16% organic y-o-y growth, in addition to 3% FX growth and 47% M&A growth. We anticipate a gross margin of 29.9% given the company’s history of being able to maintain a gross margin at the 30%-level despite cost inflation. Our updated EBITA estimate is SEK 129m, which corresponds to an EBITA margin of 7.9%. Operating cash flow should be negative for the quarter as Q2 is a seasonally weaker quarter on cash flow. More specifically, we anticipate an operating cash flow of SEK -27m.

ABGSC Commissioned Research